US$ strength set to come to an end

Finport Currency Brief 


Good morning all;


AUDUSD: Friday's US unemployment data surprised to the downside with "only"164,000 new jobs created last month; although the actual Unemployment Rate fell to 3.9%. The market was undecided as to how to react to that event and so we sat just north of 0.75c. The week ahead will be of more interest as we are set to hear domestic Retail Sales numbers tomorrow and of course the Treasury releases its annual budget - where there are thoughts that we'll see a solid surplus and hear of tax cuts. The US will release its inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday with both expected to show a pull back. The solid technical support seen on the charts still holds and based on the above fundamentals, I see a grind higher over the week to come. 


AUDEUR: Mixed data from the EU also saw this pair stabilise just below 0.63c. News that Euro zone Economic Activity grew but Retail Sales slowed resulted in the fist down day in over a week. The Europeans are on holiday for the early part of this week and with no data set to come from that continent, I'd expect a continued climb higher and target 0.6350 being the trend-line resistance that has been in play since Feb'17. 


AUDGBP: Continued lower than expected UK economic data resulted in a week of upward pressure for this pair to hit a 0.5575, levels not seen for month and a half. A UK bank holiday today should mean a  quieter start, but House Price data then Manufacturing numbers followed by the Bank of England meeting should ensure we have some healthy volatility. Technically trend-line resistance that can be traced back to Q3'17 has just been hit, so we'll need some dire UK info to push higher. I'd suggest importers may want to look at this exchange rate as a good place to buy Pounds, considering where we were at the end of March.   


Jim Devonport


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