A$ hanging on in there

April 29, 2018

Finport Currency Brief 

 

Good morning all;

 

AUDUSD: US economic data has reflected the expected economic slowdown with GDP up 2.3%, lower than the 2.9% of last quarter, whilst the US Consumer Sentiment has also declined from the prior read. The result has meant that the A$ has stabilised, having broke down through the 2 year upward trend-line, on the back of our own string of weaker fundamentals. However we are well shy of the December 75c lows and this week in particular should determine medium term direction; in particular tomorrows Reserve Bank meet and Thursdays Trade Balance numbers will effect price action only slightly less than Thursday mornings US Federal Reserve meet and Saturday mornings US Unemployment data. A break either side of 0.75 to 0.76 should set us on the way. Interestingly a major Forex poll released last week has this pair at 0.79c next quarter......

 

AUDEUR: We've seen a solid recovery from this pair as the Euro tumbled at a faster pace against the US$ than the A$ did. European Central Bank President Draghi has failed to give any clear directive on his plans for their continued quantitative easing program and that has outweighed the otherwise positive economic data that we have recently seen. The start of this week should be quiet with May day holiday's across the continent, but moves should start from Wednesday on wards and the big picture seems to suggest we take advantage of any move to eaither side of the 0.62 to 0.63 range. A break and we could be off to the races. 

 

AUDGBP: All go here as a string of poor UK data releases has hit the Pound hard. News that Prime Minister May's government is on the back foot again as she tries to change the BREXIT agreement and the Home Secretary resigned over the weekend is also contributing to the markets rationale. The result has been a sharp rally to highs that have capped since mid March and these levels are important because a break could signal another jump to 0.56/0.57 level seen at the start of the year. This weeks UK Manufacturing , Construction and Services data are taking on even more importance. 

 

Jim Devonport

E: jim.devonport@finport.com

M: 0415 066 468 


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