Trump's fighting talk having little effect on the A$US$.

April 9, 2018

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets.

 

Good morning all;

 

AUDUSD: Although trade war concerns may be pushing equity markets lower, somewhat surprisingly, the A$ US$ has managed to stay firm. Data on Friday saw US job's numbers print at 103k which was much less than the 190k jobs expected. The US Unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and so has knocked any thoughts of a near term interest rate hike for 6. US Inflation data is due on Wednesday night and our real only economic focus, however politically I expect some pull back from Trump's aggressive behaviour, which should see the A$ continue the recovery. 

 

AUDEUR: This pair has been stuck around the 0.6250 level for the last week. The status quo should continue, unless there any surprises from European Central Bank President Draghi in his speech on Wednesday evening. Technically the charts are forcing a series of lower highs and high lows, meaning a squeeze on price action and then an expected spike as one side gives out. I favour the top side to give way once we are through 0.63 cents. 

 

AUDGBP: Aussie Sterling has also traded a tight range, which is very unlike recent trends. There has been a decided lack of economic data since Easter, which has meant the market is simply unwilling to push this cross lower still, or conversely force any consolidation. We do have UK Manufacturing data due on Wednesday and a speech by the Bk of England Governor on Friday morning, however I can't really foresee a break out until next weeks "heavier" data releases. 

 

Jim Devonport

E: jim.devonport@finport.com

M: 0415 066 468 


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