An interesting run in to Easter

March 25, 2018

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets.

 

Good morning all;

 

AUDUSD:  The markets nervousness over the US President Trump's trade war has meant that any push higher for this pair is soon sold into. Looking ahead we have US GDP data to come on Wednesday night, with the Core PCE Price Index on  Thursday, which is the US Federal Reserves favoured inflation gauge. This particular piece of data is expected to show a decline over the last month and so disappoint those looking for near term rate hikes and therefore weaken the US$. There is no Australian data due, so I favour current levels to support and the A$ to grind higher as tariffs become old news and Trump's threats dissipate as they always do.    

 

AUDEUR: With the A$ falling out of favour investors pushed this pair to lows not seen since Febuary 2016. My forecast that 0.62c is to hold rang true on Friday and that needs to be the case over the next few days as well. We are not expecting any major data releases or events from the EU this week, so I expect sideways price action before the holidays. 

 

AUDGBP: This pair is now back to the levels seen the day the Poms voted for Brexit. The markets apparent satisfaction of the way negotiations are being carried out, the UK Prime Minister seemingly set to remain in office and of course the expected interest rate hike from the Bk of England in May has the downward trend firmly in place. UK Current Account data is due Thursday, but even a blow out there shouldn't be enough to cause a break. Interestingly we are bang on the 50% retracement of the sell off that went from 0.70p in March 2013 to the 0.44p in August 2015, which could cause a small bounce above 0.55p and if happens then I'd suggest buyers jump on.

 

Jim Devonport

E: jim.devonport@finport.com

M: 0415 066 468 


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