AU$ on hold for the RBA, but then what?

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets.

Good morning all;

AUDUSD: Recovered to close above 0.7750 and confirming my forecast "false break" of the important technical support level. The move came despite a better than expected read in the US Consumer Sentiment data and ongoing concerns over President Trump's steel tariffs. Focus for the week ahead is firstly on the RBA, but also the string of market moving economic data releases from either side of the Pacific. Today should be quiet, however tomorrow and every other day of this week has figures due that could see this pair just as easily back to 0.75c or to 0.80c from whence we came. I'd strongly suggest placing orders to take advantage, although perhaps more importantly orders that protect against adverse price action.

AUDEUR: My predicted recovery came to fruition as the Euro suffered on fresh BREXIT concerns, German Retail Sales printing worse than expected as well as Italian and German voting. Interestingly, a Reuters poll out on Friday suggested the momentum in the Euro zones economic growth has peaked. Results from the polls and comments from Thursday's European Central Bank meeting will therefore be eagerly awaited. Those hanging out for 0.64c, or even 0.65c, may get their wish.

AUDGBP: The Pound has remained remarkably resilient, trading right in the range I quoted on Friday, despite fresh arguing with the EU on Great Britain's split away. The Northern Ireland / Southern Irish border is becoming a real sticking point, especially as PM May had to get into bed with the Northern Irish politicians to shore up her position at least years general election. There's not too much in the way of economic news expected from the UK this week, so it will be politics and Australian data that will decide direction and a chance of a break of the aforementioned range.

Jim Devonport

E: jim.devonport@finport.com

M: 0415 066 468

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