AU$ looking to take off

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets.

Good morning all;

AUDUSD: The US produced a number of better than expected economic data releases on Friday and pushed the AU$ down a cent in thin liquidity as the market closed for the long weekend, (US Presidents Day). However we have opened on the front foot this morning and have regained a third of the losses so far. There is a bit of central bank news due in the days ahead, from both the RBA and US Fed, but nothing that we expect to be market moving. Instead, we look to the charts and see the medium term upward channel in full flight and expect 0.80c taken out in due course.

AUDEUR: The range has held here, as forecast last week, as we track back to 0.64c. Minutes from the recent European Central Bank meet are released on Thursday and we have quite a few second tier data releases from central Europe to come. On their own they shouldn't be enough to force a break, but should they all surprise in one direction then we may well see a break of 0.6350-0.64c range - but don't hold your horses.

AUDGBP: Has traded flat over the last couple of days and held within the short term downward channel. Weaker UK Retail Sales data hurt Sterling on Friday and we look to Bk Of England Governor Carey's speech tonight as well as inflationary news that is expected mid-week. There is pressure to the downside and we may well even test 0.56p but that should be the low for those repatriating Pounds into A$.

Jim Devonport

E: jim.devonport@finport.com

M: 0415 066 468

AUDUSD

AUDEUR

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