A$ hanging on in there

Finport Currency Brief Good morning all; AUDUSD: US economic data has reflected the expected economic slowdown with GDP up 2.3%, lower than the 2.9% of last quarter, whilst the US Consumer Sentiment has also declined from the prior read. The result has meant that the A$ has stabilised, having broke down through the 2 year upward trend-line, on the back of our own string of weaker fundamentals. However we are well shy of the December 75c lows and this week in particular should determine medium term direction; in particular tomorrows Reserve Bank meet and Thursdays Trade Balance numbers will effect price action only slightly less than Thursday mornings US Federal Reserve meet and Saturday morn

US$ strength sees support tested

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: The sell off seen at the end of last week has continued at the start of this, as US bond yields have risen to 2.996%, being their highest in 4 years. With global political tension and increasing concerns of a stock market rort investors have piled into the US$ bond market as a safety play. Interestingly however this currency pair hangs in at technical support of the long term upward channel, in place since Q3'15. So with domestic inflation data due today and US GDP numbers later in the week, we'll either get a bounce or break. I favour the former, but should we sink then the next line in the sand is 3c bel

Got our favoured break -

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: Broke to the downside with a jolt yesterday as the US Dollar strengthened on higher bond yields and our local Unemployment picture disappointed. Last month saw just 4.9k jobs created and the prior months read revised down from +17.5k to -6.3k. The adjustment to last months number was surprising and brought about my forecast break out of the tight range, although I must admit I didn't expect it to be to the downside. This 78c is proving difficult to break at the moment, but I believe we'll have another go very shortly. Those buying A$ may want to call in today, whilst those selling A$ go have a nice weekend

Starting to build up steam

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: Has held a tight and steady price range as the market looks to political tensions in the middle east. Encouragingly for importers and those looking to sell A$ at higher levels, the A$ would normally have been sold off in this situation but has held firm, even in the face of improved US Industrial Production and Housing numbers. Focus is on tomorrows domestic Unemployment data, which is expected to show a improvement to 5.5%, so once political concerns are out of the way I'd expect a sustained break for this pair. AUDEUR: German economic confidence fell sharply in April and has contributed to the pairs cont

Is this the week that was?

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: We had a solid rally in Friday's Asian session, however the geo-political uncertainty meant the market was happy to square up ahead of the weekend. The next few days do have the potential to be a watershed given the still simmering tensions between the US and Russia over the Middle East, the trade wars that are still going on in the background and the heavy economic data calendar that is also full of important releases. As long as the political situation doesn't worsen, then we see the exchange rate pushing on wards, once Friday's highs are broken again. In the meantime those selling US$ may want to look a

The A$US$ holds the highs.

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: With the easing of political tensions the Australian Dollar has held on to its recent gains, helped by weaker than expected US data releases overnight. There is nothing on the economic calendar today and so I'd expect the recent tight range to hold as the market winds down for the weekend and looks to next weeks more heavier data. Technically the price action suggests we are happy here and held firmly in the long term upward channel, with 0.76c as the low and mid 0.80's as my target. AUDEUR: My forecast of a spike in this pair came true overnight as the European Central Bank released its minutes of the las

The A$US$ bounces as forecast.

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: As I suggested in Monday's report we have seen some pull back in the trade war standoff , especially from Chinese President Xi Jingping who said they will look to open China's economy with lower import tariffs. This has seen risk appetite back on the table for investors and resulted in recovery for the Australian Dollar, commodities and equity markets. Focus for today is on a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, however that will be overshadowed by US inflation data tonight. We may have a bumpy few days ahead, but the upward trend is firmly in place. AUDEUR: The A$'s recovery was negated by European Central Bank m

Trump's fighting talk having little effect on the A$US$.

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: Although trade war concerns may be pushing equity markets lower, somewhat surprisingly, the A$ US$ has managed to stay firm. Data on Friday saw US job's numbers print at 103k which was much less than the 190k jobs expected. The US Unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and so has knocked any thoughts of a near term interest rate hike for 6. US Inflation data is due on Wednesday night and our real only economic focus, however politically I expect some pull back from Trump's aggressive behaviour, which should see the A$ continue the recovery. AUDEUR: This pair has been stuck around the 0.6250 level for the last we

The local unit holding its own.

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: Price action has been quite supportive of my view the A$ is headed for higher ground, here at least. We have had a string of healthy domestic major economic data releases, however the scaremongering reports relating to the fights US President Trump is picking could easily have caused the currency to bounce around in a wider range than the 1c range we have seen - yet here we still sit at 0.77cents. Granted the market has been thinned by holidays and the wait for tonight’s all important US Unemployment report, however it has taken much less than this to create a risk averse environment that results in a conc

The end of the correction?

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Good morning all; AUDUSD: The Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold yesterday, although there was barely a ripple in the market, as we focus on local Retail Sales data today then Trade Balance numbers tomorrow, which are then followed by the all important US Unemployment release on Friday night. Expect some decent volatility then, in the next few days, but looking at the charts my forecast 0.76c support level has indeed held and the weaker US$ trend appears to be underway. AUDEUR: As per my last report, the recent sell off has been contained with the EUR under pressure, following disappointing EU Manufacturing Activity numbers a

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