The AU$ holds its own

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. As suggested yesterday, the recent rally in the AU$US$ came to a halt, however the local currency has managed to hold on to its gains, despite better than expected US Retail Sales data. There are no major economic releases to come until the new year, so unless there is some form of geo-political surprise then this currency pair should hold around here for the next wee while. Elsewhere; the AU$Euro has also held at 1 month highs as the European Central Bank kept interest rates at 0.00% and said they would remain there for an extended period of time whilst still pumping Euro30 billion of liquidity into the system each month to keep i

When you're right, you're right

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Our forecast AU$US$ leg higher gathered pace yesterday and has carried on in the same fashion this morning. The move started with a less than negative speech by RBA Governor Lowe, which was then added to by weaker than expected US inflation data overnight. The pair didn't sit around for long as the US central bank hiked interest rates, as widely expected, but made comments that inflation remains low. The market subsequently priced out a third interest rate hike in 2018, hence why we sit 1.5% higher than yesterday and 3.6% higher over the week. We favour higher levels still, but in a choppy range as importers jump on more advantage

I love the smell of a recovery in the morning.

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. As forecast, the AU$US$ appears to have firmly rejected the lows we called last week and has traded 1% higher overnight, as commodity prices recover and outweighed a healthy US Producer Prices data release. All eyes will be on RBA Gov Lowe this morning and then the US central Bank this time tomorrow; for what is expected to be another hike in interest rates. The move is priced in, however, it's their accompanying rhetoric that will be key. We favour a continuation of the AU$ uptrend. Elsewhere the Germans are still playing politics with each other and the UK, whilst also releasing lower than predicted German Economic Sentiment data

The start of a recovery or a dead cat bounce?

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The AU$US$ bounced off the support lows yesterday, as forecast, due to a lack of economic data and as we prepare for Thursdays expected US interest rate hike and local employment report. Prior to that, however, we do have some second tier economic releases and a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, but that shouldn't be enough to force a break of the weekend lows. Over in Europe, German PM Merkel is busy resolving her Government's coalition talks as well as overseeing BREXIT negotiations. The result has been a solid push higher and one Euro currency buyers may want to take advantage of, ahead of the Euro Central Bank meet on Thursday night

The start of an exciting week to come

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The A$ starts the week 150 points lower than this time 7 days ago. Several key local data releases and some upbeat positive US numbers contributed to the move. However, it was primarily the fall in commodity prices, US President Trump's tax reforms and the pricing in to the exchange rate of the expected hike in US interest rates this coming Thursday morning. Looking ahead to this week then and we have domestic unemployment numbers and another flood of US, Chinese, EU and UK data. The result could easily be a recovery of last weeks A$ sell of across the board, another run lower or a bounce around current levels. We favour the former

A$ down 2% this week but keep the faith

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Yesterdays Trade Balance number, weaker commodity prices - Gold at 4 month lows - as well as a market preparing for an expected hike in US interest rates next week and the US$ bullishness over Trump's tax reforms has the AU$US$ at 6 month lows. However, despite all that's been thrown at the local currency, we are still at psychological and technical support levels so therefore still cling to our favoured uptrend. Tonight's US Non-Farm Payroll unemployment data could well be the catalyst for a recovery, so those with US$ bills to pay shouldn't lose hope just yet and those buying AU$ should seriously look at these levels. Up in Euro

Poor Trade Balance number pulls A$ lower...but we favour a bounce

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. A weaker than expected drop in GDP data had the A$ held at recent lows, even though the local economy grew at a relatively strong +0.6% over the last quarter, as the market was happy to keep the exchange rate as is. Our real focus was this mornings Trade Balance number and with a shocking print of just +0.11bio, versus an expected +1.37bio and prior +1.60 bio the A$US$ has tanked down to just shy of 6 month support lows. This mornings levels should see a pick up in A$ buying and so we'd a retracement over the next 12-24 hours whilst we prepare for the US Unemployment data that comes on Friday. Over in Europe there is still no reso

Au$ held by RBA but ready to go again

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. News that the Current Account Balance had shrunk and Retail Sales had grown stronger than economists forecasts had the A$US$ higher, but the move was held in check by a fall in copper prices and by Reserve Bank comments that any further strength would negate growth and inflation. The market was also reluctant to take us higher as we wait for domestic GDP data this morning and the most important data release of all ; namely the US Non-Farm Payrolls that come out on Friday night. It wasn't so tight in Europe however as the breakdown in the BREXIT talks has resulted in the Pound and Euro immediately being sold off across the board and

Aussie $ spikes on healthy data, despite the RBA 5/12/17

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. As forecast in earlier reports, the volatile price action has begun with a healthy spike in the A$ exchange rate across the board this morning. News that the Current Account had shrunk and that Retail Sales had grown at a pace not seen since July sparked the push higher. The Reserve Bank meeting has also just concluded and their statement saw interest rates on hold as expected, but with a warning shot that a higher A$ would slow the economy. This of course is their standard line and most market makers will ignore that and instead concentrate on the mostly better than expected prints of economic data. Focus turns to tomorrows domest

Finport 18footer just misses the win!

18ft Skiffs NSW Championship, Race 2 Sunday, 3 December 2017 Sydney Harbour The defending champion Smeg team of Lee Knapton, Mike McKensey and Ricky Bridge strengthened their grip on the 2017-2018 NSW 18ft Skiff Championship with their second win of the championship in Race 2 on Sydney Harbour today. A winning margin of 48s makes the win look decisive but the victory was a long hard battle mixed with some good fortune when two early race leaders faltered at the bottom mark on the first two laps of the course. Smeg took full advantage to cross the line ahead of Finport Trade Finance (Keagan York, Angus Williams, Adam Minter) with The Kitchen Maker (Scott Babbage, Sam Ellis, Phil Marshall) a f

Massive week for the A$ 4/12/17

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The A$US$ held our pre-mentioned support levels of last weeks reports and bounced higher on Friday, as forecast. The mixed US data and news that the Trump administration has pushed through it's tax reforms should see this upward trend continue. There may, however, be some bumps along the road as the next few days ahead throws up some very important economic data releases either side of the Pacific and of course the Reserve Bank meet tomorrow. Looking to the charts then and we'd set an initial target toward the highs seen at the start of November and therefore a good level for importers to set their target orders. Looking to Europe

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