The AU$ being left behind 1/12/17

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. Despite the solid support the AU$ appears to enjoy against the US$ around these levels, having bounced around in a 0.0170 point range for the whole of November, the local currency is suffering versus the other majors. EuroUS$ is up 0.0400 points and GBPUS$ is up 0.0500, respectively since the start of the month, meaning a solid up turn in expense for those those importing from either side of the British Channel - when those moves are calculated as EuroAU$ and GBPAU$. The outlook against the US$ is still favourable however, with the likely hood of our Reserve Bank holding interest rates another 6 months, whilst the US Federal Reser

The present that keeps on giving 23/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The clarification from the Reserve Bank Governor that he sees the next most likely move in interest rates as up, has the A$ continue its recovery. That and the minutes from the US Central Bank meet, which saw some members concerned about low inflation, ensured we remain at the highs as the markets take a breather for the Thanksgiving long weekend. Technically we have hit the 50% retracement of the sell off seen at the start of the month and we appear comfortable up here, although I personally feel we should still see 78c+ by Christmas. Looking ahead to next week and there's a distinct lack of major economic data, which suggests the

Lowe gives us an early Xmas present 22/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The A$ had a solid bounce off our recently discussed support levels as RBA Governor Lowe suggested that the next move in interest rates, when it comes, is more likely to be up. This was an unexpected clarification given that the RBA had only the day before stated they wouldn't want a higher currency. From a technical perspective, this adds strength to the upward trend and we'd really need a shock from either side of the Pacific to force a break lower. The currency is far from out of the woods however ,as the market is unwilling to take the price action too far from current levels, ahead of tomorrow mornings US Federal Reserve comm

Do you want A$US$ at 65c or 85c? 21/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The A$ has been held at recent lows by another bout of healthy US data, (the "US Leading Index" had its third consecutive increase), whilst the RBA has just released its minutes from the most recent meeting and they have of course bemoaned any further rise in the currency. Market focus is on Thursday morning's US Fed minutes, so in the absence of any shocks, we should continue to float just above 2 year long support. This gives us time to look at the medium to long term and a report released this morning from investment banking giant Morgan Stanley. They see the A$US 67c next year and 65c the year after, as yield for government bac

A$ falling away 20/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar posted a near 2% fall last week as data that showed weaker wages growth, a lower number of new jobs and a fall in commodity prices outweighed a drop in the unemployment rate to just 5.4%. If it were not for the concerns over the US tax reforms then the local currencies sell-off could well have been a lot greater. Another factor weighing on our currency is the shrinking gap in interest rates offered between US and Australian Government debt, that sits at 17 year lows and seems likely to tighten further. On that note and looking ahead to events this week, we have the release of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy

A$ clings to the cliff 17/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar has held firm with yesterdays release of a lower rate of domestic unemployment here, but an uptick in weekly jobless claims from the US. There is no economic data due until next week, so I expect the current situation to remain as is. The technical picture confirms this as the A$US$ holds on to long term technical trend line support levels on the charts that come from lows seen in Jan'16, Dec'16, May'17 and today. Looking to next week and our main focus is on a speech by the RBA Governor on Tuesday and US Fed Chairwoman the day after. Any change in tone from them could spark a sudden move in that respective di

A$ moved as expected but... 16/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar had our favoured move this week but failed to hold support levels yesterday and fell away due to a continuation of weak wage price inflation data. Although that was the excuse in mainstream media, when reading between the lines of offshore financial news reports, the domestic political situation here is not one that investors are happy to put their money in. Weaker commodity prices as well as a resurgent Euro has also turned towards the northern hemisphere. Focus today will be on Australian unemployment figures due at 11.30am that are expected to show a drop from last month and should we see any move higher fo

A$ well supported, time for a move higher? 15/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar held firm at important technical lows as doubts surface over US tax reforms and as a member of the Federal Reserve suggested their interest rates should stay lower for longer. This outweighed some weaker than forecast Chinese data, but which still showed their Industrial production chugging along at more than +6% a year. Focus now turns to US inflation and retail sales numbers that are expected to reflect a decline in both sectors and therefore maintain the support the A$ currently enjoys. This could also mean the start of a grind higher to the middle of the recent range, ahead of our local Unemployment data d

Aust Biz Conditions at all time high

Data just released shows that "Business Conditions" rose to a 21+ index points in October, up from +7 in September and at an all time high since the index began in 1997. "Business Confidence" was also on the up and holds above its long term average. The A$US$ has jumped on the back of those readings and we now look to Chinese Industrial Production numbers at 1pm and a speech by outgoing US Fed Chairwoman Yellen overnight, to see if any recovery can be sustained. Going forward, I'd expect a slow upward grind as we look towards Wednesday nights more important US data and Thursdays local Unemployment report. Jim Devonport E: jim.devonport@finport.com M: 0415066468.

A$ hit by double whammy 14/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar has dropped 0.75% as commodity currencies were sold off and as the political situation grows even more dire - despite a smiling and waving PM at APEC. Newspaper coverage of our minority Government fighting a number of battles is starting to grab attention in the major markets and that is preventing investors from buying A$US$ at these relatively low levels. The local unit continues to hold on to technical chart support, but our immediate focus now turns to today's local business confidence data, a string of Chinese economic cumbers as well as UK inflation data this evening. However the major market moving rele

Finport 18ft Skiff: Spring Championship, Race 6

Team Finport heads into the final race of the 3 buoys challenge next Sunday in second place and only 2 points behind. 18ft Skiffs Spring Championship, Race 6 Sunday, 12 November 2017 Sydney Harbour It was a day for the young 18ft Skiff teams on Sydney Harbour today when Noakes Youth defeated Panasonic Lumix by just 2s in a heart-stopping finish to Race 6 of the Australian 18 Footers League's Spring Championship. The Noakes Youth team of Kirk Mitchell, Daniel Barnett and Tim Westwood grabbed the race lead for the first time at the final set of windward buoys in Rose Bay and held off the fast finishing Panasonic Lumix team (Lachlan Doyle, Rick Plain, Michael Vincent) in a spinnaker dash to the

The week the A$ moves? 13/11/2017

Finport Currency Brief - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar traded within a 1% range last week, as the RBA kept interest rates on hold and had little new to say. The diminishing threat of an interest rate cut, no fresh North Korean action and a continuous stream of healthy Chinese economic data has however keep the local currency supported. The week ahead may nonetheless see the range broken, as we look to local Business Confidence data tomorrow, Thursdays unemployment figures and a string of important US numbers that will also come towards the end of the week. Our medium-term target is 0.80c, as long as 0.75c holds and we have seen a steady increase of sizeable market

A$ - Steady as she goes 10/11/2017

FINPORT CURRENCY NOTE - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar closed the day flat as the subdued trading activity continued. There was a brief flurry of activity with better than expected Chinese data and as US Weekly Unemployment Claims edged higher, but nothing to write home about. Focus today is on the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement and some second tier data from the US this evening, however with a US bank holiday today (Veterans Day) we see a quiet end to the week. Those looking for some movement may well get their wish in the middle of next week, with US inflation and domestic Unemployment numbers set to shake up price action, but we'll discuss that on Mond

The A$ back at fair value 9/11/2017

FINPORT CURRENCY NOTE - Courtesy of Compass Global Markets. The Australian Dollar has traded a tight range, as have most markets, in the absence of any notable economic data releases and as all eye's are on President Trump's trip to China. Although the local unit had been the strongest of the G10 currencies, edging back to "fair value" following Tuesday's RBA meeting, a surprising drop in Home Loans data that was released this morning resulted in a 1/2% fall. However, our real focus is on Chinese inflation figures, just released, that showed a continued uptick and in turn this should keep the A$ supported and confirm our favoured view of a gradual grind higher back to 0.80 cents. Jim Devonp

2017 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey

From the Asian Development Bank Report This brief discusses the 2017 ADB Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey which quantifies global market gaps for trade finance and the impact on growth and jobs. The 2017 ADB Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey deepens our understanding of why firms cannot access sufficient trade finance and its impact. The survey explores the associations between shortfalls of trade finance and jobs as well as the behavior of woman-owned firms. In addition, this year’s survey introduces suggestive evidence that while fintech is reducing the cost of delivering trade finance, it’s not closing market gaps, as was hoped. The 2017 survey results were obtained t

18FT Skiff Team Finport Race 5

18ft Skiffs Spring Championship, Race 5 5 November 2017 Sydney Harbour Race 5 of the Australian 18 Footers League's Spring Championship produced the fifth different winner when Ollie Hartas, Pedro Vozone and Rob Polec brought ILVE home a 23s winner on Sydney Harbour today. The ILVE team had to come from behind to grab the lead at the final set of windward marks then hold off the former world champion SMEG team of Lee Knapton, Moke McKensey and Ricky Bridge. Appliancesonline.com.au (Brett Van Munster, Phil Marshall and Nick Hord) was a further 58s back in third place, just ahead of Jordan Girdis' Panasonic Lumix, Finport Trade Finance (Keagan York) and Noakesailing (Sean Langman). With just t

East & Partners (E&P) Trade Finance Research

International supply chain management should be becoming more sophisticated and intuitive as digital solutions are more readily incorporated, yet key product and service limitations are still encountered frequently according to the East & Partners (E&P) Trade Finance program. The research and analysis is based on direct interviews with a representative, natural sample of 2,000 importers and exporters twice a year, running continuously since 2004. E&P’s robust research methodology also provides scope for extensive reanalysis by state and sector. Several major banks experienced material market share and wallet share declines in 2015, resulting in a prevailing view that the majors can no longer

COMPASS Weekly Market Update 31/10/17

US Q3 GDP data came in better than expected at 3% following 3.1% in Q2. The US$ initially rose on the back of strong economic growth and optimism that the US tax reforms will pass by the end of this calendar year. However, there is a catch. Refer details below: US Senate and House are in favour of tax reform (this only allows a smaller $1.5trn in tax cuts vs Trump's planned $2.4trn over a decade). Republicans remain divided (will tax cuts raise the governments budget deficit). House wants deficit neutral tax cuts. It is now anticipated that the proposed tax cuts will be phased in over a 5 year period...not good news for the USD bulls as the USD weakened in response. Current US Fed member Jer

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